How artificial intelligence will destroy employment
Manufacturing may bear the brunt. For basic manufacturing and labor-intensive industries, the emergence of artificial intelligence may set off a culmination of "machine substitution". Take Zhejiang Province as an example. Since 2013, robots have replaced the work of 2 million industrial workers. In the United States, after the mature driverless technology, about 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States will face unemployment. The World Economic Forum predicted that the demand for lumberjacks will be reduced to 12% in 2022, farmers will be reduced by 19%, postmen will be reduced by 28%, and a large number of simple and redundant labor will be replaced by robots. With the increasing cost of labor, more and more companies are more willing to choose more efficient robots to cut costs and increase profits.
Of course, artificial intelligence is not only capable of simple stylized work. When artificial intelligence penetrates into the management field, it will also change the structure of enterprise management. Advances in technology will increase the efficiency of management, and will also promote the flattening of the corporate structure hierarchy. For example, before the information age, companies needed specialized personnel to handle the administrative affairs of employees. However, after the level of informationization is increased, companies may only need one system or software to complete the day-to-day management of employees. The increase in management level will result in redundant personnel. With the abolition of the original institutions, a group of people were subjected to unemployment pressure. When companies in Japan and the United States transitioned to emerging industries, most of them had made layoffs. At the end of the last century, Hitachi, Japan, proposed the "Information Electronic Hitachi Plan" to develop the information electronics industry, reducing the number of its headquarters staff from 1,600 to 800; the United States's well-known General Electric Company also adopted the same method in the 1980s. The number of 350 complex institutions was reduced to 12, and the number of employees was reduced from 440,000 to the current 260,000. Technological innovations drive the transformation of corporate governance structures, and this transformation is often accompanied by a reduction in personnel.
In addition, in the circulation field, technological advances will shorten the life cycle of products, that is, the payback period for product profits will be shortened. This may have a more significant impact on labor-intensive industries. The shortening of the profit-return period will drive up corporate costs. If companies fall into a short-term recession, the demand for labor will decline, leaving many people facing unemployment risks.
Technology is not an accomplice of unemployment but an employment guardian
The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2022, there will be more than 7 million jobs in the world due to artificial intelligence and technological innovations. Although this figure is somewhat "stunning", in the long run, with the development of productivity, the emergence of new occupations and the demise of old occupations is no more than normal. Moreover, the so-called unemployment cannot blame all the heads of technological progress. on. On the contrary, the development of technology usually appears as a positive role in promoting employment.
According to the history of economic development, the main cause of unemployment is actually the fundamental aspect of the economy. We can recall the large-scale wave of unemployment since mankind entered the modern world. Whether it was the wave of unemployment that swept the world in 1929 by the United States or the high unemployment rate after Japan fell into the Heisei Depression, before the appearance of unemployment tides. Basically, there has been a large-scale economic crisis. Technology, on the other hand, will often become the key means for realizing industrial upgrading, pulling the economy out of the bottom, and promoting employment. In the United States after the 1970s, the economy has long been plunged into stagflation, and the dominance of the world has declined. To a large extent, with the development of high-tech industries, it has gradually emerged from the economic downturn; after the US financial crisis in 2008, various countries The government also regards technological innovation as an important means to escape from economic difficulties. China also vigorously develops industries such as artificial intelligence and the Internet, which indicates that technological innovation is not a stumbling block to employment, but rather it will promote economic development.
We should realize that artificial intelligence's "occupation" of jobs is not necessarily a bad thing. In the short term, the economic life of blue-collar workers may be affected. However, as the education level of Chinese laborers has improved, more and more workers do not want to engage in "shop-style" simple and repetitive labor. Even if it is a factory with the name of the world factory, its manufacturing industry has been deep in recent years. It is plagued by the "labor shortage"; for enterprises, companies are also facing the pressure of rising labor costs. In Zhejiang, 75.7% of enterprises had used high labor costs as a "machine substitution" in 2013. The main reason is that companies choose more productive robots have become a reality demand. Therefore, from this point of view, workers and managers have a consistent appeal. Artificial intelligence can not only solve the problem of excessively high labor costs for the operators, but also liberate the laborers from simple and repetitive labor, enabling them to perform work that can achieve more personal values. Since September 2014, Dongguan has invested 10.8 billion yuan in "machine substitution". After it is completed, it can reduce the use of nearly 80,000 people. It can alleviate the "labor shortage" to some extent. Therefore, in the long run, "machine substitution" may not be worthy of criticism.
On the other hand, artificial intelligence and technological innovation itself have a certain compensatory effect on employment. According to Marx's argument, the introduction of machinery will increase the productivity of social labor, thus lowering commodity prices and expanding demand. The emergence of new buyers will increase output and thus require more labor. In addition, artificial intelligence itself can also nurture some new industries and accommodate new labor. For example, search technology, high-performance computing platforms, Internet of Things operating systems, and drones, such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and other emerging technologies that are being explored by technology giants, can all play a role in attracting high-tech talent.
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