LED giant brake personnel shortage and overcapacity coexist

Nowadays, the LED industry of the emerging energy-saving and environmental protection concept is in full swing, and many related or unrelated listed companies, or purchases plus or new purchases. The move of the front runners in front will be the focus of everyone’s attention. Sanan Optoelectronics (600703, closing price of 16.27 yuan) has purchased 107 new production equipments so far this year. Dehao Runda (002005, closing at 17.41 yuan) has launched 130 new equipment this year.

However, the professional website high-tech LED recently quoted industry insiders as saying that the domestic LED machine installed machine has slowed down, including Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda have temporarily suspended installation. The reporter immediately asked the relevant listed company for verification.

MOCVD installed capacity surged
The MOCVD machine is an indispensable device for producing LED lamps, and its product is an epitaxial wafer substrate material for making LED chips. LED chips are mainly used in electronic products such as computer screens, LED TV displays and mobile phone displays.

Sanan Optoelectronics' 2010 annual report shows that the company has 77 MOCVD machines. By June 2011, the company is about to reach 144 units, with an increase of 107 units throughout the year. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, Sanan Optoelectronics continued to rank first in 2010, with sales reaching 590 million yuan. In 2011, Dehao Runda planned to add 100 MOCVD machines to the Wuhu base, and 30 new MOCVD machines in the Yangzhou base, with a total of 130 units in the whole year.

Changjiang Securities reported on May 3 this year that by the end of this year, it is expected that Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda will become the top two most listed MOCVD machines in China, with 177 and 140 units respectively.

The First Venture Securities Research Institute also said that globally, Chinese LED companies have added MOCVD equipment to occupy the main part of the orders of the world's three major MOCVD equipment manufacturers (Aixtron, Veeco, Japan, Taiyonippon). In 2010, China's equipment demand exceeded 200 units, 50 more than the total installed capacity in the past 20 years.

Not only that, but the industry has also welcomed many new entrants this year. Aoyang Shunchang (002245, closing price of 9.25 yuan) announced on February 22, plans to invest 1 billion to build LED projects, will invest 30 MOCVD machines, high-power blue-green LED epitaxial wafers and chip development and manufacturing. Xinhaiyi (002089, closing price of 14.56 yuan) also announced on July 5, intends to invest 270 million foreign investment in Najing Optoelectronics to build LED projects, purchase 20 MOCVD machines.

Two major reasons lead to a slowdown in new installations
Recently, people inside the LED equipment manufacturing industry revealed that the domestic LED upstream epitaxial wafer production machine MOCVD machine, the installation and commissioning temporarily stopped, including the listed companies such as Dehao Runda and Sanan Optoelectronics.

To this end, the "Daily Economic News" reporter as an investor to Dehao Runda to verify, the company's secretarial office staff said that the company did not stop the installation, but the progress slowed down, the reasons for the development of the industry and the lighting market There are no signs of a clear outbreak. The staff revealed that the lack of equipment-related technical personnel is also a factor affecting the installation.

The reporter of "Daily Economic News" verified this with Sanan Optoelectronics. The staff of the secretary-general office said that the company's equipment commissioning is almost over. The 107 units purchased last year are also being debugged, and some of them have been mass-produced.

According to a report by Zhongyuan Securities on May 31, the world's largest suppliers of MOCVD machines are only Aixtron and Veeco. Aixtron's first quarter operating income was 205 million euros, a decrease of about 8% from the previous quarter, and new orders also showed a slowdown. Veeco's LED equipment revenue in the first quarter was $215 million, a decrease of 15% from the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the company received LED-related orders of $198 million, a decrease of 21.7% from the previous quarter. There have been signs of a slowdown in equipment demand.

At the same time, the report pointed out that domestic local governments' subsidies for MOCVD procurement will come to an end, and domestic upstream investment will therefore slow down. For example, Yangzhou City's financial subsidy policy for the LED industry will end in July 2011, while Jiangmen City's subsidy for MOCVD is nearly exhausted. Other local governments that have introduced similar subsidy policies are also observing whether they need to end the subsidy policy.

Relevant industry insiders of Fujian Optoelectronics Industry Association also told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the epitaxial substrate materials are falling in the first half of this year. The release of MOCVD capacity should not have appeared this year. At present, it is still mainly lack of technicians operating MOCVD in related companies, which are lacking in the world. Personally think that the price of downstream chips should fall in the second half of the year.

On July 12th, an LED industry research institute also stated that under the subsidy policy of local governments last year, the Chinese chip factory optimistic about the LED lighting market demand, and significantly expanded the expansion plan to increase the number of production equipment MOCVD machines. However, due to the lack of clear demand for LED industry terminals in 2011, product inventory continues to increase, so manufacturers have begun to slow down the plan to purchase MOCVD equipment.

Does all the signs show that the growth rate of the upstream of the LED has slowed down?

A researcher in the electronic components industry of a brokerage research institute told the reporters of the "Daily Economic News" that according to the above indications, there is still ample excess of LED upstream. If you see the equipment supplier's interim report, you can be sure.

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