OFweek smart home network news: In 1995, Microsoft founder Bill Gates in his best-selling book "The Road to the Future", had 15 years of smart life to make a good scene. At present, it seems that some predictions have gone down, some have been deviated from reality, and many are still in the imagination. In sum, in one sentence, Bill Gates's prediction of smart life did not come as expected. Is his prediction too advanced?
In the past few years, the smart home market continued to expand. In 2015, 47 million smart home devices were shipped worldwide. According to HIS Markit, the market will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 60% and reach 477 million units in 2020. In 2015, automatic equipment other than security equipment accounted for 60% of the global smart home market; HIS Markit forecasts that its share will account for 80% in 2020.
The fastest-growing automatic equipment is outlet switches, appliances, air conditioners, and lighting equipment. With these four types of equipment, the annual packing volume in the world will increase from 15 million in 2015 to 30 million in 2020. In terms of penetration of smart homes, although only 6% of North American households had smart home systems in 2012, HIS estimates that this ratio will increase to 28% by 2020. Gartner is even more predicting that in 2022 an average family may have more than 500 smart devices.
Obviously, the smart home industry and technology have been spiraling upwards. The huge market prospects have attracted many capitals. However, it is rather embarrassing that ordinary people still do not care about the capital market and the manufacturers' expectations. Too much interest. This seems to be a cliché problem. Most consumers still regard smart home as a concept without clear value, rather than the necessary daily life. The growth of the smart home market is also slower than expected.
Taking intelligent home appliances as an example, as an important part of accessing the smart home Internet of Things, the market is currently making slow progress. Although more and more home appliances have or will be networked, there are two main reasons. First, users need to wait for home appliances. Replacement cycle; Second, the value of appliances connected to the Internet of Things has not yet been fully reflected in consumers. For example, consumers ordering milk through refrigerators, consumers who are concerned about the price of equipment and are less inclined to purchase value-added services do not seem to pay the bill. . There are several obstacles to the development of smart homes. The first is the lack of uniform standards, the second is the complexity of operations, the third is the high cost, the fourth is that the smart features are not practical, and the fifth is the lack of ecosystem support.
There is a kind of view in the industry that the misunderstanding of smart homes lies in the fact that they are now smart and intelligent, and they stay at the level of a geek. The general public's demand for this piece is not large. The key point is that there is no market breakthrough in smart homes that really set off the market. According to statistics, there are a lot of small enterprises in Beishangguang that do smart homes, and some have already “dead on the beachâ€. The reason for the fall is that these companies do not grasp the pain points of consumers, that is, there is no killer app that attracts consumers.
The smart home standing on the “Internet +†outlet is still in the early stage of the industry. The huge market space needs to introduce more cross-border forces and create a breakthrough in the market. So where is the next breakthrough in the smart home market?
With the maturity of artificial intelligence, 2017 will be an important year for artificial intelligence to go into practical use from cutting-edge technologies. The “artificial intelligence + smart home†is full of imagination. Smart home has experienced the climaxes and troughs of the past few years. In 2017, it has opened a new chapter in artificial intelligence and has become an important market breakthrough for smart homes.
The fully artificial intelligence smart home will realize the full-automatic, self-learning and self-awareness of the smart home system. The core meaning of the smart home is that it can create a breakthrough for the smart home to enter the ordinary family. For example, voice interaction is one of the many revolutionary technologies of artificial intelligence. Interaction with the Internet using natural language is very attractive to ordinary consumers. With the iteration of technology, voice interaction will solve many application pain points.
Former Baidu chief scientist Wu Enda once stated that when the accuracy rate of speech recognition reaches 99%, speech interaction will replace the existing human-computer interaction. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, abandoning mobile phones and installing more “smart†brains for smart homes through artificial intelligence, it is not a dream to let humans control their homes more freely and as they please. In fact, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has started using his own artificial intelligence butler. This housekeeper can not only adjust the indoor environment, arrange meeting schedules, make regular breakfasts, automatically wash clothes, identify and entertain visitors, and even take care of Mark Zuckerberg's daughter to speak Chinese. In other words, the artificial intelligence can become the control center of the smart home, connecting the scattered intelligent single products in the home to form a complete smart home ecology, and change the pain points of the weak linkage of the smart home before.
For the promising smart home market, there is no shortage of hardware vendors. In particular, many companies will adopt follow-up strategies, and will only use force when market breakthroughs occur. Therefore, we cannot expect that the smart home market will be promoted by large companies. Instead, we must look for breakthroughs from the applications and needs that have the most investment value. Artificial intelligence can make waves in the ocean of smart homes and it is worth looking forward to.
expert's point
Ma Rongjun, general manager of Honeywell's global high-growth area smart home:
Smart Home is not just a simple APP
If smart home products only add a simple APP, then it is just a super remote control. The true smart home products need to be people-centered and provide users with total solutions. Such as smart air purifiers, users need it to become an intelligent air housekeeper, including automatic detection of air quality, before the arrival of the air has been cleaned in advance, and automatically shut down. In addition, various devices can be interconnected. For example, smart cameras automatically track the user's behavioral activities and send this information to various devices in the home to provide a more intelligent life for the user.
A good smart home product is a good combination of software and hardware. Now that there is no shortage of talents for developing APP, the key is to make the software and hardware deeply integrated and let the hardware and software developers work together to find a solution for the user instead of separating them.
Smart homes cannot be controlled by a single company, even Google, Apple, or Samsung. Therefore, smart homes need to build an ecosystem and standards to achieve interconnection between brands.
Former Chief Scientist of Baidu Wu Enda:
Data and talent are scarce resources for artificial intelligence
Research teams with more advanced AI (artificial intelligence) research are more open and often publish research results. Baidu's AI research papers have not hidden any results - all the details are shared in papers such as face recognition. Since it is difficult to hide the algorithm itself, there are two kinds of scarce resources. One is data and the other is talent.
It is difficult to get huge amounts of data. Only speech recognition Baidu uses 50,000 hours of audio to train. If only 5 to 10 R&D teams are available, it is difficult to obtain scale data. Large companies such as Baidu often launch some new products not necessarily for revenue, but for data. Another scarce resource is talent. The application of AI needs to be customized according to specific business scenarios. Only downloading an open source package can not solve the problem. Companies are scrambling for AI talent for data mining, customizing AI technology, finding out what A and B need to represent, and how to find the data and how to adjust algorithms to adapt to business scenarios.
HKUST Flywheel President Hu Yu:
Artificial Intelligence Development Faces Three Difficulties
The ability of artificial intelligence mainly includes three blocks: computational ability, perception ability, and cognitive ability. The artificial intelligence program AlphaGo mainly relies on its powerful computing ability, perception ability and perception in image understanding, language understanding, and knowledge understanding. In terms of ability, it cannot be compared with human beings.
The artificial intelligence program AlphaGo also belongs to the primary level application in artificial intelligence research. Artificial intelligence is a simulation of human brain intelligence, and the development of artificial intelligence faces three major challenges. First, the principle of the generation of human brain intelligence has not yet been studied clearly. The study of "brain science" is still in the phase of exploration; secondly, despite the rapid development of computers, However, there is still a need for breakthroughs in the study of mathematics and algorithms. Finally, just as humans learn knowledge, artificial intelligence needs to be improved by learning a large amount of data. This requires artificial intelligence to be combined with products and industries to improve artificial intelligence through practice.
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