It seems that the new energy car has been settled, and the penalty should be played. Everyone is waiting to see how the relevant government departments will finally decide. It seems that this is basically the case. Everyone should do it, and the days will not continue. But don't know why? I always feel that my heart is still a bit sloppy, and that this board has hit the desire of human greed. Is it really like this?
For more than 20 years, I have developed a habit of reflection in my work (here I have to put out the theory of Minzberg to install B, or else how to reflect the profession). Reflection is actually a way of working, not to pursue accountability or to revisit old things. The person who makes the car always likes to get a benchmark car, and then the target is reversed. In fact, the reflection is the benchmark, the benchmarking between planning and execution, and the benchmarking between theory and practice. This kind of benchmarking can clarify the facts, understand the gap between the original intention and reality, find out the root cause of the problem and avoid making low-level mistakes. It also exposes the traps that some policy makers and implementers intentionally or unintentionally set in order to falsify the truth.
First of all, I found a media report on September 18, 2013 from the Internet:
“2013-2015 new energy vehicle subsidy policy was introduced. Yesterday, four ministries (Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Science and Technology and Development and Reform Commission) issued the “Notice on Continued Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†(“Noticeâ€), continuing the new The policy of subsidizing cars. The main purpose of the notice is to promote the development of new energy automobile industry, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and promote air pollution control.
The maximum subsidy amount is unchanged, and the calculation method is changed to the cruising distance as the standard. The definition of new energy vehicles includes pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. The maximum subsidy for private new energy sources remained unchanged at 60,000, but the battery pack energy is no longer the main indicator for measuring subsidies, but instead the subsidy is based on the cruising range of the car in the pure electric mode. New energy buses are subsidized by the captain, with a maximum subsidy of 500,000.
The demonstration city will receive government subsidies for the construction of charging stations. The notice proposes that for the model cities that meet the standards, the central government will arrange funds for comprehensive rewards for the construction of charging facilities. The conditions that the demonstration cities need to meet include that, between 2013 and 2015, the cumulative amount of new energy vehicles in megacities will not be less than 10,000 vehicles, and the total number of other cities will not be less than 5,000.
The proportion of new energy vehicles that promote the application of foreign brands is not less than 30%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles purchased by government agencies and public institutions is not less than 30%. ......"
Many people believe that the content of this report is a prelude to the development of China's new energy vehicles. Because of this policy, many people set 2014 as the first year of China's new energy vehicles. However, we may wish to take a closer look at the detailed rules of this regulation. I have carefully obtained the Notice on Continued Implementation of the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles published on September 17, 2013 (Cai Jian (2013) No. 551). Article 2, paragraph 4, states:
“(4) Subsidy standards. The subsidy standard is determined based on the base price difference between new energy vehicles and similar traditional vehicles, and factors such as scale effect and technological progress are considered to decline year by year. The specific subsidy standards for 2013 are shown in the annex. In 2014 and 2015, pure The subsidies for electric passenger cars, plug-in hybrids (including extended-program) passenger cars, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cells are reduced by 10% and 20% respectively according to the 2013 standards; pure electric buses, plug-in The hybrid (including extended program) bus standard remains unchanged."
Please note the date of this document: September 17, 2013. Before the publication of this document, China had once had a round of incentives for new energy vehicles. At that time, the name was “Ten Cities and Thousands of Vehiclesâ€, but in the end, the total number of electric vehicles in operation in the country was less than 100. This failed policy has not only stimulated the development of new energy vehicles in China, and even most auto manufacturers have no interest in reporting announcements. (People in the automotive industry know that our country is implementing a car announcement system. A new car is handed over to the consumer from research and development to production, and the most important thing is to pass the review and approval of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Announcement, vehicles without announcements cannot be listed for sale.) The reason is that, according to the regulations, each automobile production enterprise must submit an application to the CNC machine company 10 days before each month, and also obtain the automobile-related products issued by the test qualification enterprise. Test reports, which take at least two months or even months. Therefore, the 2013 subsidy standard listed in the annex to this notice is, in the final analysis, just a water moon and a mirror flower. Any automobile company can see it and can't touch it.
At the time of the publication of this document, almost all new energy vehicle-related companies found this problem, but no one complained. They kindly think: This is a bug. The country is so big. There are so many things in the government management department. It is difficult to coordinate between the departments. Therefore, it is unreasonable. Moreover, there is also the 2014-2015 year, you only need to hurry and fight, you can do it.
We understand that the central government's determination for the development of new energy vehicles is there. Premier Li Keqiang also supports new energy vehicles. On the surface, the government's support for new energy vehicles is indeed very strong. However, we may wish to analyze it calmly:
As we all know, if Carl Mercedes invented the car in 1885, it has been more than 130 years old. Automotive technology forms a non-challenging rule, and this rule means that the design and verification of a car never allows for any opportunistic and omission modes.
The cycle of developing a new car in the automotive industry is about 3-5 years, which does not include the development cycle of the new chassis. The common understanding in the industry is that it is more reasonable to arrange the battery of the new energy vehicle at the bottom of the car. This arrangement must be modified on the bottom plate of the car. In fact, due to the large and heavy battery pack hanging on the bottom plate, most of the fuel vehicles need to be modified to the suspension part, which means that the most troublesome problem in the development of automobiles has emerged. Because we all know that the chassis includes suspension, braking, transmission, steering and other systems, changing the suspension is equivalent to a brand new chassis, which means that the new car must undergo strict, long-term verification and testing. (This explains why we have few new energy vehicle announcements in 2013, 2014 and even 2015.)
The above mentioned is only the chassis of new energy vehicles, and does not include the motor, battery and motor control technology that we do not really master. Even the engine and gearbox calibration of the fuel car will take at least 18 months to complete, and the three high and low tests that must be tested after the three electric and main vehicles as the main components are one or two months. Can you finish it?
When we go back and reflect on this document, the orientation of the whole policy is undoubtedly disregarding the laws of science. If some people who do not know the truth are responding with ulterior motives, then the orientation of this new policy has become an incentive for auto manufacturers to take the initiative. Do not act in accordance with the laws of science. For auto manufacturers, it is really unwise to conduct research and development in accordance with scientific laws during the subsidy period, and to conduct practical tests. It is really unwise to take the process. Because of this, you will never get subsidies. Objectively, this explains Why do some people squander and take risks?
Someone who writes here may stand up and say that you are looking for a reason to disguise the deceiver. (Don't give me a hat, the fence may be tight, there may be a weasel, but I can't get into the wolf). If the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is continuous and can give car manufacturers enough confidence, who is willing to touch legal risks to deceive people?
We all know that the basis of Western microeconomics is that people are selfish and rational. New energy vehicle policy makers should be more aware that the introduction of a policy, while stimulating the development of enterprises in the direction of government hope, must take into account how people will use policy loopholes. This is human nature. It is also the touchstone of whether policy makers are lazy, whether they are fair, whether they are used by interest groups, or whether they can be implemented. However, the New Energy Vehicle New Deal has been implemented for more than two years. What have we seen? We saw that the company had to use a fuel truck to remove the engine and change the motor (look at our announcement, whose car is not modified on the fuel car?), we have seen that the mileage calibration of pure electric vehicles is neatly catering to subsidy standards ( Why do our new energy vehicles have no 140km battery life? Why is there no 240km battery life?), we see the small scale of investment in battery manufacturers thunder and heavy rain (regardless of the media and industry, the battery is overwhelming, and we will see What is happening is that the battery price will not fall down.) What we are seeing is the fear of more and more auto manufacturers on the advent of the post-subsidy era. (Look at the national auto companies, really developing the chassis of pure electric vehicles, How many??,...and even we saw the trick of Jim West.
We understand that policy makers hope to realize the real marketization of electric vehicles through subsidies and retreat to achieve a soft landing. We also understand that policy makers hope that excellent auto manufacturers can take advantage of this opportunity to become bigger and stronger, and understand that policy makers want to One stone and three birds took the opportunity to eliminate some car manufacturers with backward production capacity. But there is nothing in the world that is cost-free. Marketization must be regulated by “invisible hands†rather than government administrative intervention. When the enterprises at the forefront of the market do not know the value of the new energy vehicles in the minds of consumers, we can't imagine where the heads behind the desks of the Ministry of Industry and Information will be smarter. Similarly, whether car manufacturers can seize the opportunity to become bigger and stronger, the reason must be the choice of consumers to vote, and not the government officials vote in the conference room; and who in the automotive industry is definitely the market The natural law of survival of the fittest, and not the decision of government officials in the empty figures in statements and copywriting!
A new energy vehicle subsidy policy of “evil door ass†ultimately leads to the quirky algorithm of subsidy policy (algorithms and formulas can be selected for the mathematics college entrance examination questions next year), as well as the randomness and contradiction of the policy (a moment encourages high) The energy density, and later said that the ternary can not be used on passenger cars), ultimately led to the deception of China's new energy vehicles (when we denounced and called for severe punishment of the bad behavior of Jim West, we should not think about it, formulate subsidies) What crimes should government officials take?"
It should be pointed out that the consequences of this subsidy policy are still continuing to ferment. Everyone knows that logistics vehicles are one of the most suitable models for developing new energy vehicles. They are also relatively low-tech models compared to passenger cars. Many car companies have invested a lot of research and development energy in this area. According to the subsidy policy, logistics vehicles will begin to fall back from January 1, 2017. However, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not explain anything and abolished all the new energy vehicle promotion catalogues, no new energy logistics vehicle has been listed.
A few days ago, a senior in the battery industry said: Electric logistics vehicles are looking at the second half of this year. It is estimated that the promotion catalogue of new energy logistics vehicles is likely to come down recently. I said, don't dream, even if it is the promotion catalogue at the end of August, I am afraid that there will be very few companies that can bring logistics vehicles to the market this year, unless you go to the law to deduct.
Do not believe that we can count the accounts: If the approval of the new energy logistics vehicle promotion catalogue is opened, it will be declared on September 10, even if your research and development level is high, the technical strength is strong, all kinds of test certifications pass, and every link is There is Bodhisattva Jesus Shakyamuni Mohammad too old Laojun 阎 爷 土地 landlord to help you, you also need to get the announcement in early October, then you can start applying for exemption and promotion catalog; even these gods I will help you, the promotion catalogue will be available on November 20th, and the dog will be in the head, and you will get the exemption in the same period. So how many cars can you produce? And how many opportunities do these cars have to enter the market? Then how much subsidy can you get?
Of course, if you are far-sighted, you have already got the announcement and exemption of the logistics car. Please note that you have to check if your battery is in the catalog. If not, you are miserable. You must take another trip. And don't forget to worship the Buddhas and the landlords every day. If you use the battery of the manufacturer in the catalog again, you must be careful, because it is likely that the latest motor certification is waiting for you. If you can't get this thing, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology can completely let you not sell a car with a paper file.
If you have already got the latest version of the motor certification in the future, then congratulations, you only have one quarter to produce. If you really have stocked a number of new energy vehicles, then we have to admire your Superman's IQ and want to ask awkwardly: Where did you get such accurate information? Should we call on the disciplinary committee of Comrade Wang Qishan to understand the inside story?
At this point, we have to suspect that the subsidies for new energy logistics vehicles this year are still in the mirror, and we have to doubt whether the new energy vehicle promotion policy is true? Is the new energy cause strongly supported by the state "to tease you"?
Reflecting on this, I think it should stop. We believe that the party believes in the central government and believes in the professionalism of experts who advise the government. However, we still do not understand why such a new energy subsidy policy is formulated. Announcement-Promotional Catalogue-Exemption-Battery Catalog-Motor Catalog... How many thresholds are waiting for us? Why can't this simplification be simplified?
Finally, let’s talk about the new energy vehicle promotion and application policy in our mind:
First, the new energy vehicle development strategy is listed as one of China's basic national policies. The development of new energy vehicles is juxtaposed with national security. From legislation to the administrative department, conditions should be created for the development of new energy vehicles.
Second, before 2020, the subsidies will be abolished, and the development space will be provided to enterprises and the whole industry. At the same time, the new energy vehicle subsidy tax will be gradually imposed on the fuel vehicles, and the policy will guide enterprises to abandon the idea of ​​quick success.
Third, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will be transferred from the supply side to the consumption side, and the vehicle management department will implement the consumer new energy vehicle subsidy system to return the life and death power of the new energy vehicle production enterprises to consumers.
Fourth, from the legislative and judicial interpretations, the new energy vehicles are cheated and defrauded.
Fifth, cancel local subsidies and completely let local protection lose means.
Once again, reflection is not about who is right and who is wrong. It is the gap between the original intention and practice of the inspection policy. As a practitioner who has experienced the coldest historical period of the new energy industry, no one wants to see new energy vehicles in China more than we do. Development dawn.
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