Dribbling U.S. merger with surviving variables, policy regulation or major obstacles

Since last week, the news that Didi and Uber will be merged have been continuously fermented on the Internet and major media, which has aroused widespread concern. Yesterday, Didi officially announced the merger with Uber China, finally gave a final conclusion on this matter. However, from the latest news today, there are still many variables before the two companies formally complete the merger.

According to the latest news on August 2, at the regular press conference held this morning, the Ministry of Commerce press spokesman Shen Danyang said: "The Ministry of Commerce has not yet received centralized reporting from Didi and Uber China related transactions. According to regulations, all business operators should report to the Ministry of Commerce in advance if they meet the requirements for reporting under the “Anti-Monopoly Law” reporting conditions and the “State Council’s Regulations Concerning Concentrated Reporting Standards for Business Operators”. Uncontracted individuals may not implement centralized consolidation. He said: " Dipchi and Uber China have to apply for mergers. If they don't declare, they can't go down. "

The attitude of the Ministry of Commerce is not without reason. According to the “2016 Q1 China Special Vehicle Market Research Report” published by the China IT Research Center (third-party data research institute), the overall car market maintained a rapid growth in the first quarter, with 85.3% of the order market for DDT cars. Its share ranks first in the industry, with Uber, Easy Access Vehicles and Shenzhou Special Vehicles ranked second, third and fourth with 7.8%, 3.3% and 2.9% respectively.

From the analysis of the market report mentioned above, after the merger of Didi and Uber China, it will occupy 93.1% of the Chinese car market share .

Then the question arises. Does such a high market share represent monopoly? This may not be the case.

Some analysts believe that compared with China’s population of 800 million people, the current mobile penetration rate is still very low, and there is still ample room for development for the entire industry (this point is the number of words that CEO Cheng Wei wrote at the National School of Administration in May this year. It was also mentioned in the speech.) According to McKinsey's industry report, the total number of city trips nationwide in 2015 was about 400 billion, while the share of shared trips was only below 1%.

At the same time, as far as the entire travel market is concerned, there are not only exclusive express trains, but also taxis, free rides, carpooling, driving, car rental, bus private ordering (big carpooling), as well as bus, subway and so on. Didi and Uber China only account for a very small percentage of them, and there are still many strong competitors in the market. Due to the rapid changes in the structure of the Internet travel market and the low market barriers, a company can easily gain or lose shares, so competition in the market is still fierce.

And some experts said that it is not a monopoly state that violates the law but monopolistic behavior . According to the "Anti-Monopoly Law," if a company's market share exceeds one-half, or if two companies merge more than two-thirds, they will be presumed to have a dominant market position. However, having a dominant market position does not represent monopoly. The Anti-Monopoly Law is aimed at abuse of dominant position, such as refusal to trade, restrictions on transactions, tying, and other malicious monopolistic behavior.

In response to questions from the outside world on anti-monopoly issues, Didi responded to the media today: At present, both Didi and Uber China have not achieved profitability, and Uber China’s turnover in the previous fiscal year also failed to meet the declared standards, so it The "Monopoly Law" and the "State Council Regulations Concerning Concentrated Declaration of Business Operators" do not need to be reported to the relevant departments in advance. However, the two companies will also maintain active and smooth communication with relevant departments.

In spite of this, according to the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, since the Ministry of Commerce has explicitly requested that Didi and Uber follow the “State Council’s Concentrated Declaration Standards for Business Operators,” the verification of whether or not it meets the declaration standards and related declarations is required. The monopoly agencies can still investigate the behaviors of Didi and Uber allegedly monopoly on their own.

In addition to the Ministry of Commerce, the transportation department may also have problems.

After more than a year of public opinion fighting, extensive discussions, and opinion solicitations, the transportation department finally changed its past attitude and began to support the orderly development of the Internet dating market. And on July 28, the new regulations were formally introduced to clarify the legal status of the Internet. However, it should be noted that the new regulation also has another meaning, that is, it is hoped that taxis and network vehicles will be able to carry out misplaced operations and compete fairly with all parties concerned.

In an interview with reporters, Liu Xiaoming, deputy director of the Ministry of Transport, made it clear that online dating vehicles have indeed solved many problems in the taxi industry. However, it cannot be denied that the market position of taxis cannot be replaced, so the best way is to use the Internet. The taxi service is optimized, while the taxi is used to strengthen the supervision of the network. The two realize misplaced operations, fair competition, and serve the public together to realize the benefits of the parties.

However, Didi and Uber China chose to announce the merger at the time when the new regulations were just announced, which may not be reasonable. Because the merger itself will cause great damage to the development of the local taxi market, it is obviously contrary to the core meaning of the new rules to be conveyed, which may lead to a strong rebound in the transportation sector.

In addition, according to sources who are unwilling to disclose their names, the merger of Didi and Uber China involved matters such as car rental price adjustments. According to the current management classification, the price divisions such as the National Development and Reform Commission were not excluded.

From this point of view, the merger of Didi and Uber China may not be easy. Apart from the internal factors of the industry, we must also give full consideration to the supervision and policy factors of various relevant departments.

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