7 trillion US dollars—what does this number really mean? This staggering sum far exceeds the total GDP of countries like Japan and Brazil in 2017. Compared to the 7 million billion cases we once discussed, these figures are just a drop in the bucket. But what exactly is this 7 trillion dollar opportunity? Is it a return on investment for companies, or a new market that could be worth 7 trillion yuan in the future?
The answer lies in a groundbreaking concept recently introduced by Intel: the "passenger economy." According to Intel's report, as self-driving cars become more common, a new economic model called the "Passenger Economy" will emerge in the traditional consumer market. This model represents the value generated by fully autonomous vehicles.
With the rise of driverless technology, consumers will no longer have a direct relationship with their cars. Instead, they'll shift from car ownership to using mobility-as-a-service providers, leading to entirely new business models. Intel predicts that by 2035, the passenger economy could reach around $800 billion, with rapid growth expected between 2035 and 2050. By 2050, the overall value of the passenger economy is projected to reach an astonishing $7 trillion.
Some experts argue that even this figure might be too conservative. Greg Lindsay, co-author of *Aviation Metropolis*, believes the impact of self-driving cars could be as transformative as the introduction of the Ford Model T. Intel acknowledges that while their forecast is based on similar market studies (like 5G), there is always some margin of error. However, they believe the estimate is within an acceptable range.
At the core of the passenger economy is a shift in how services are delivered. Intel estimates that travel services alone could generate $3.7 trillion, making up about 55% of the entire passenger economy. Additionally, driverless cars could save over 585,000 lives between 2035 and 2045, reduce commuting time by 250 million hours annually in congested cities, and cut public transport safety costs by $234 billion.
As self-driving cars become mainstream, road capacity could increase significantly, as collisions will no longer be a concern. Moreover, innovative applications and services linked to autonomous vehicles could bring in $200 billion in revenue.
The passenger economy isn't just about technology—it's about reshaping entire industries. It's a new era of industrial transformation under Industry 4.0, where autonomy becomes the key driver.
Autopilot technology involves three main layers: perception, cognition, and action. The action layer includes steering, throttle, and braking controllers, while the sensory layer uses lidar, radar, cameras, and navigation systems. The cognitive layer, where AI plays a crucial role, handles decision-making and planning.
Companies like Siemens, GE, and Bosch are already investing heavily in this space. Siemens acquired MendoGraphics for $4.5 billion, and its DRS360 platform aims to achieve Level 5 autonomy. GE has developed the ICS-8580 module for video processing in autonomous vehicles. Bosch, meanwhile, is pushing to achieve full automation by 2022, working with major automakers like Mercedes-Benz.
For automakers, the passenger economy presents a massive opportunity. Like the personal computer or smartphone, self-driving cars will transform personal consumption. People may no longer need to buy cars, shifting demand toward rental services and related industries. This could reshape auto repair shops, hotels, and entertainment sectors.
In the long run, automakers may transition from selling cars to offering mobility-as-a-service. They could also compete for city-level transportation networks, becoming fleet operators. Ultimately, the passenger economy will redefine how we think about transportation, creating new industries and opportunities.
As awareness grows, the passenger economy will continue to reshape the global landscape, unlocking unprecedented economic value. The future of mobility is not just about driving—it's about reimagining how we live, work, and connect.
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