When internet finance was questioned, criticized and suppressed, the concept of blockchain emerged in a timely manner. The mysterious data processing technology born out of Bitcoin was described as perfect...
Vigilance: blockchain Chinese scam
People put the blockchain technology over myth, as if to expect it to save the world.
But in this world, there has never been a perfect thing. What we think can be used to save all technologies, such as decentralized, distributed ledgers, actually existed more than a decade ago. It is not so mysterious. It even has its own flaws. Otherwise, why is there still no breakthrough in progress?
The facts are exactly the same. When people talk about how the blockchain subverts traditional finance, apart from the buzzing blockchain forum, only the fluctuating stock prices of related listed companies will remain. As the new concept soars, ferments and heats, be wary of it becoming the next Ponzi scheme in this magical land.
Heavy point of view:
Blockchain, big data, P2P, inclusive finance – the evil path of China's Internet finance.
1, nonsense of blockchain letters
The importance of blockchain technology to credit information is overestimated.
Blockchain is a decentralized database. An analogy: A company has several branches. After the branch has done the accounting, the books are stored centrally in the headquarters. This is a traditional database and it is relatively easy to tamper with. The branch companies make multiple copies of each page and tear it up. Randomly distributed to other branch companies, and then restore it if necessary, this is a decentralized database, and it is difficult to start with tampering.
The most important result of blockchain technology is Bitcoin. A lot of friends are doing, and I have always been concerned. Bitcoin is controversial, but in principle it makes sense. How many coins in each account, how much money to other accounts, need to be broadcast to the entire network, scattered archives.
At present, the bottleneck of credit investigation is: too little data, poor quality, and poor credit correlation. “Awkward women can't be without rice,†and then smart models and algorithms are difficult to accurately determine user credit. Whether the database is decentralized is not important at all.
In addition, credit related data is very sensitive and neither the credit bureau nor the user wants to be open. Data is the lifeblood of the credit bureau. Every family wants others to be open and keep their secrets. Users don’t want their data to be public, they’re all broadcast to the entire network, and they’re terrible when they think about it. It’s 1984: “Blockchain is watching you!â€
Is there a centralised credit system in the end? Already there have been thousands of years - acquaintances borrowing networks. The credit is good or bad, and the acquaintance knows. Each node on this network not only holds credit-related data, but also makes independent decisions. Not only is the hard disk decentralized, but even the CPU is decentralized.
The more the lack of scientific spirit, the more divided people's attitude towards technology: Some people, sometimes rejecting and resisting, are regarded as flooding beasts; some people, sometimes superstitious and fanatical, think that they are all ill.
Each technology has its limitations, blockchain currency has its unique value, blockchain credit information is purely nonsense. In this magical land, there are not only blockchains, but also big data, P2P and so on.
2, big data credit or big data anti-fraud
The blockchain credit is based on big data credits. Even if the data is completely open and the algorithm is highly developed, it will encounter bottlenecks. Fintech is by no means a panacea. After the credit agency analyzes the data, it gives the individual a score or line of credit. For example, sesame is divided into 702 points and ant spent 22,000 yuan. In fact, this is not science.
Credit is relative, not the same as height. The height is absolute. Yao Ming is 2.36 meters tall. As long as the measurement method is correct, regardless of the observer's height, weight, thinness and distance, he is 2.26 meters. Credit is not the case, and people are multi-faceted: “Daddy Lai Pi, said to take me to the park for a good weekend.†“My husband has promised to do everything.†“He said that he would love me forever and be a big liar.†"He was very punctual when he was working. He never delayed it." "The property has been paid for, and it has been dragged on for two years!" It is also borrowing money, it may be the village chief, Lai's classmate, and Jingdong's white bar, Lai P2P debt. .
The current big data credit agency requires users to provide operators, Alipay, Taobao, WeChat, Jingdong, online banking, credit cards, personal email, corporate email accounts and passwords, ID cards, mobile phone contacts, units, home address, and almost personal The privacy of the day has passed. In the end, they either refused to accept or granted thousands of dollars in credit.
This is not credit, but anti-fraud. Although these data are sensitive, they are not highly relevant to personal credit. The agency can only use this to judge whether the user is a normal person with normal work and life. It is still unclear as to whether the credit is good or not. In order to control bad debts, only a few thousand dollars can be credited. To judge whether a person is a normal person, you don't need to be bothered. Acquaintances can see it at a glance.
The data required by big data credit bureaus is increasing. Users feel more and more troublesome and humiliating. This will lead to reverse elimination: the more users face the more the exclusion of big data credits, the quality of the remaining users becomes worse and worse. This has led to a rise in bad debt rates, a rise in interest rates for borrowing, agencies demanding more data, and normal users fleeing a vicious cycle.
How much do you want to lend to someone? Acquaintances know best, and everyone has different answers.
Big data technology also has limitations and applies to areas where accuracy is not too demanding. The weather forecast can be as follows: The probability of raining at 12 o'clock noon tomorrow is 80%. There is no rain at that time and the consequences are not serious. Product recommendation can be, according to consumer records, recommend Samsung mobile phones, not interested, do not buy is. However, if the bad debt ratio is higher than 10%, the general lending platform will collapse. Is the accuracy of big data credit sufficient?
Big data is suitable for troubleshooting suspicious users, but it is difficult to give credit information to normal users.
3, damn P2P financial management
This is not a curse but a fate.
The major P2P platforms began to abolish offline wealth management outlets. The next step is to abolish online banking clients, including PCs and mobile phones. They are all oriented towards retail investors, and are replaced by the agency-oriented ABS department. The major P2P platforms LendingClub and Prosper in the United States are now mainly funded by institutions. This is the right way.
The financial management side for retail investors is a transitional stage in a special stage. Its fate is to be “crossing the river to remove the bridgeâ€. When the transaction volume of the platform is small and the business is unstable, the wealth management side can only face retail investors. When the transaction volume is large and the business is stable, the wealth management side will be oriented to the organization.
The P2P platform is nominally an information intermediary and charges service fees. It is actually a credit intermediary and earns interest rates. In the case of loan-end interest rates and bad debt ratios, the lower the cost of wealth management, the greater the spread. The financial side costs include two parts. It is clearly the financial interest rate. The darkness is the marketing cost.
Since the financial management side faces retail investors, the platform has to bear higher financial interest rates and marketing expenses. The first-line platform financial rate is also about 10%, marketing costs are staggering: the average cost of winning more than 1,000 yuan, including the search engine, video, flat media advertising, soft text, do charity, charity, buy membership, industry awards... ...makes the platform look reasonable. What do retailers want and what does the platform give? A good platform can give, a bad platform can give.
When the trading volume of the P2P platform exceeds 10 billion yuan, it is necessary to consider issuing ABS to institutions. ABS, Asset Backed Security. If the platform can come up with basic data and prove that the bad debt rate of the previous loan is acceptable, the organization is naturally willing to provide funds for the new loan. Staged music and Jingdong’s issuance of ABS has been buoyed by institutions and its interest rate is only about 5%. Pleasant Loans will also launch online consumer finance credit ABS.
The “asset shortage†is looming, and institutions are eager for quality assets. If the P2P platform has a large volume of transactions and has confidence in the quality of its assets, it should issue ABS to institutions to reduce the cost of funds. Since we can persuade organizations to reduce costs, why bother to spend money to avoid retailing?
After the excellent P2P platform is enlarged, it will gradually replace the existing wealth management terminal with the ABS department. Which department can obtain funds at a lower cost and which ones remain to be reused is a normal business logic unless the boss does not want to make money or has a ghost.
Do you really understand the blockchain?
In the current portrayal of the media and financial industry, there are very few words that really spell out the blockchain technology, but more about the future of the technology. Therefore, if the blockchain is to be landed, it still requires the entrepreneurs in the field to be down to earth. It is meaningless to subvert, and it is meaningless to talk about technological innovation at all times. All unrealistic concepts are ridiculous.
What are these blockchain startups doing?
Blockchain technology has recently become a fire, and people from all walks of life have expressed optimistic about the future development of the blockchain market. They believe that the blockchain can be used in various fields such as internet finance and medical care, but as far as domestic development is concerned, the blockchain technology team is concerned. In China, Bobby has made integral applications based on blockchain technology. Small ants have carried out equity crowdfunding based on blockchain technology. Can this explain that blockchain technology has already been used in real applications?
Are listed companies really doing blockchain?
The concept of blockchain heat continues to ferment. After Alibaba Finance announced in January of this year that it may provide a cloud service platform based on blockchain technology, blockchain concept stocks such as Feixin Chengxin, Hang Seng Electronics, and Guangzhou Broadcasting Express have successively stated their views on blockchain research. But what is curious is what these listed companies are doing with blockchain technology?
Wonderful views:
Avoid unrealistic illusions about blockchain
For a new industry, we should focus on avoiding the emergence of excessive futurism. Bitcoin and the blockchain can solve some problems at the moment, but we over-examine the benefits it may bring us in the future and ignore these actual examples. .
There is a lot of demand for blockchains and there are many problems
China's financial market is relatively young. Its social demand for blockchain is mainly self-certification, asset auditability, asset management, anti-fraud and anti-money laundering, convenient supervision, and anti-counterfeit traceability, and it has become a new type of financial supervision tool and self-discipline.
Technology drives up, blockchain is so close and so far
Unlike traditional financial industry executives, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs believe that they must grow quickly and dominate a certain area while achieving network effects. But this is not suitable for the financial industry.
Blockchain Technology: Obstacles to Practical Applications in Traditional Finance
At present, except for Bitcoin, the blockchain has not yet been put into use. However, blockchains have been widely used in traditional financial institutions for a long time to come. They need to accumulate technology and wait for the emergence of mature opportunities.
What about start-up companies and investors?
Xu Mingxing: Can the blockchain become the outlet?
The current public chain still has certain deficiencies in the processing of massive transaction data, which is also a major challenge in the current application development. This requires a long process. After a large number of companies practice, they can finally achieve industrial standards and get large-scale applications.
Difficulties in Introducing Blockchain Technology into Internet Financial Platform
After the blockchain became a hot topic in the industry, more and more Internet finance platforms are eager to introduce this technology. Some industry insiders predict that: "Blockchain technology will restructure Internet finance, Internet finance will enter the 2.0 era. Blockchain technology will directly address the credit problems, P2P will usher in the "security risk control" the best period." But With the understanding and deepening of blockchain technology, there are different voices in the industry. After all, whatever the technology, the road from concept to application may not be taken for granted.
God detonated the blockchain topic, the domestic mutual gold companies choose to wait and see
The emergence of emerging technologies will often make many people cheer, feel that a new era is coming, the recent blockchain technology is so hot, it was asserted that blockchain technology is not far from us, but the real situation is like this?
China's blockchain: The project is scarce. What about subversion?
Since 2015, the total amount invested in blockchain-related start-up companies has reached a record-breaking 1 billion US dollars, and the blockchain has become one of the few hot spots in the financial industry. Faced with such a hot blockchain, various types of startups and investment institutions are also gearing up for momentum. However, with the current international blockchain projects and landing applications, the blockchain in China is still progressing slowly.
Blockchain: I'm afraid it's difficult to monitor decentralization
Blockchain uses decentralization and de-trusting to collectively maintain a database. It seems to be able to subvert a lot of traditional financial industries and improve efficiency. However, decentralization also makes it difficult to supervise the entire path and is easy to be used to build new Ponzi. As for the scam, the domestic political environment and management ideology must have a center. In particular, the central supervision of the financial industry is more rigorous. Decentralization means that the main body is not clear, and regulation is difficult to adjust the main body.
The blockchain is hot. Why is it that domestic venture capital investment is not "launched"?
The analysis of the industry insiders, from venture capital itself, need to see the real application, or there is a very successful model abroad, the country clearly wants to copy this model. Similarly, most venture capital companies do not delve into the blockchain, so it is difficult to judge whether the proposed application is achievable. It is the rigid demand of the market. This also takes time to accumulate.
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